Should the Islanders trade for Timo Meier? Grading Lane Lambert: Mailbag

May 2024 · 12 minute read

It’s a common refrain from any head coach at any time of the year, and Lane Lambert repeated it on Wednesday morning when asked to assess the first quarter of the Islanders’ season.

“So far, I think we’re OK,” Lambert said. “Obviously we have some areas we feel we need to improve on, and we’ll continue to work on those. And I also feel like we’ve had some areas we’ve done some good things.”

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Is there anything more specific he can point to?

Somewhat.

“I think we’ve been on our toes, and generating some chances,” Lambert said. “We have some areas in the D zone at times that we would like to clean up. Certainly, we want to have better starts to the games.”

Yes, the starts have been concerning, and a bit baffling, considering the veteran nature of the Islanders’ roster and that they all know getting an early lead is paramount for sustained success. Headed into Wednesday night’s game against Edmonton, the Islanders had been outscored 12-10 in the first period, and surrendered the first goal in 12 out of 20 games.

Further, there have been some defensive-zone issues on the penalty kill, in particular. Since their record-breaking start of not allowing a single power-play goal against in their first eight games, the Islanders were just 25-for-36 on the PK in their previous 12 games before Wednesday. That 69.4 percent success rate was just 27th in the league over that span.

Josh Bailey getting healthy scratched a reminder that Islanders are too thin up front

My story tonight, from Dallas ⤵️ https://t.co/mykT2fstuS

— Kevin Kurz (@KKurzNHL) November 20, 2022

Lambert is correct, though, that the Islanders have done a better job this season at generating scoring chances. The Islanders entered Wednesday’s game with 2.85 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, good for seventh in the NHL. Last season, that number was just 2.37, or 19th in the league. The Islanders have shown an ability to take over games when they want to, and that’s a hugely positive sign. Mathew Barzal has been one of the NHL’s best playmakers to this point, while veterans like Brock Nelson (9 goals), Anders Lee (8 goals) and Kyle Palmieri (6 goals) have been consistent. The Islanders’ 16 goals from defensemen remains the best mark in the league.

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So, yeah. Some positives. And some things to work on.

Onto the mailbag.

(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)

Before the season, I made a sizable bet on Barzal to pot 20-plus goals this year. Is my money good as gone? — Sean D.

I suppose that depends on how much you believe in advanced stats. According to Moneypuck.com, Barzal had 5.8 expected goals through his first 20 games, which is more than the two he actually has. In a full season, that projection would put him on a pace for about 23 or 24 goals in a full season.

If Barzal matches that projected pace over the final 62 games, it’s about 17.5 more additional goals, which, with his two, would put him right around 20 depending on which way you want to round.

Here’s why I think he does it, though — headed into Tuesday night’s games, there were 120 NHL forwards with at least 40 shots on goal. Barzal’s 3.9 shooting percentage placed him 116th out of that group. That strongly suggests he’s been a victim of bad luck and hasn’t gotten any bounces.

It will be close, but I still like your chances, Sean. And to that point, I’d argue that considering Barzal’s role, and his contract extension, about 20 goals per season should be the expectation.

Any thoughts on a Scott Mayfield extension? — Nate B. 

That’s actually a great question. Considering that, in my opinion, the Islanders have shown enough for us to think they’ll at least remain in the playoff hunt between now and the trade deadline, I can’t envision any scenario in which they would trade the pending free-agent defenseman. There are already some depth issues after the top five or six already, so even if Mayfield could hypothetically bring back some offensive help, it doesn’t make sense to take that chance with the back end.

What makes a Mayfield extension more likely is that Lou Lamoriello did a good job getting both Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov signed to reasonable deals last summer. Combined, those two are making just $6.5 million over the next three seasons. And, it’s worth pointing out that the Islanders are just 21st in the NHL in salary committed to defensemen this season, according to CapFriendly, at $21.475 million.

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What we don’t know is whether Mayfield will be tempted to test the market, as solid, depth defensemen like him are always in pretty high demand. Still, I have to think the Islanders would prefer to keep him around, particularly because there is no one currently in the system that could logically take his place next season.

Might Mayfield accept, for example, the same deal Romanov got — three years at $2.5 million AAV? That seems like a term and a number that might make sense for both sides, no?

Josh Bailey, Anthony Beauvillier and a first- or second-round pick for Patrick Kane — who says no? — Brendan S.

The primary reason I think the Islanders could end up as a landing spot for Kane is precisely because I don’t believe that’s a price they would have to pay.

If you missed it, it’s worth reading colleague Pierre LeBrun’s piece on Kane from a little while back. Kane could very well tell the Blackhawks he’s only going to one or two places, which would likely make their return in a trade a modest one. Yes, the Islanders would probably have to clear some salary to make it happen, but I doubt they’d have to give up two regular roster players as well as a high-round draft pick, even for a guy like Kane.

Last season, Claude Giroux was the trade market's big fish. This year, it's Patrick Kane.

"He’s still very much an electrifying player — one whom nearly every general manager would covet."@PierreVLeBrun has updates on the Kane sweepstakes:https://t.co/G66c1DpcNi pic.twitter.com/Y5VkkSCiUj

— The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) October 17, 2022

Which makes more sense as an acquisition, a 2C or a top-line winger? A 2C lets you run Nelson-Lee-Barzal as a top line. A top winger can plug into the existing lineup in place of whichever winger most needs replacing. — Patrick S.

Great point here. I don’t think any of us will soon forget how dominant that Barzal, Lee and Nelson line was in that comeback win against the Flames, even if it was just a brief few minutes together.

My guess would be that the Islanders would be open to anyone that can make their offense more dynamic, regardless of the position. It’s always easier to move centers to the wing than vise versa, and would be one of those proverbial good problems to have for Lambert.

And, on that note …

Obviously we need to add a responsible, offensive forward. What are your thoughts on the Islanders acquiring Timo Meier or Bo Horvat? I honestly like the overall team, but without Lou getting something done with either of these guys we simply don’t have enough. I like Timo, and the Sharks and Islanders are a match in my opinion. — Charles O.

Yeah, Charles, I agree that Meier is the greater of the two. Frankly, he would be the perfect winger to skate with Barzal. He loves to shoot the puck at every opportunity, he’s big, fast, will go to the front of the net, and has the ability to take over games when he wants to. There were times when I covered him in San Jose when Meier seemed to just be going through the motions, but I think the’s past that.

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If the Sharks were to put Meier on the market, I’m not sure the Islanders would have the assets to make that deal as bidding would be fierce. But as a player that’s still just 26 years old, perhaps they’d be willing to surrender another first-round pick and one of their few high-end prospects to get that done, provided they could also sign Meier to a long-term extension.

Personally I’ve found Semyon Varlamov to be overrated for a few years now. If there’s a market for Varlamov now or in the future this season, is trading him really going to unravel Ilya Sorokin? I’m never comfortable watching Semyon in net anymore even when he’s making saves, I don’t trust him at all. — Josh L.

Since the start of the 2021-22 season, here are the NHL’s save percentage leaders among goalies that have played at least 35 games: Igor Shesterkin (.926), Ilya Sorokin (.924), Linus Ullmark (.920), Semyon Varlamov (.920). That’s fourth out of 67 goalies that meet that criteria, by the way.

He’s not overrated. If anything, it’s the opposite. Trading him would be a risk that’s probably not worth taking, considering how important it’s become for NHL teams to have two goaltenders.

I wonder, Josh, if maybe you don’t remember how little goal support Varlamov got last season. When he was in net, the Islanders scored just 2.44 goals per game (compared with the 2.87 that Sorokin got). His margin of error was smaller, which ended up hurting his win-loss record.

Even this season, with a .914 save percentage in seven games, Varlamov has a +2.0 goals saved above expected mark, according to Moneypuck.com.

The Sorokin-Varlamov tandem remains the Islanders’ biggest strength. Messing with that would be foolish.

What grade would you give first-year head coach Lane Lambert so far a quarter of the way in? — Kyle K.

Let’s go B+.

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Look, the Islanders have played some inconsistent hockey at times, and there have been some really mind-boggling games in which they look truly awful for some stretches and utterly dominant for others. Every game is bound to have momentum changes, but what we’ve seen with this season’s Islanders is beyond the normal ebbs and flows.

Still, the first month of the season is all about banking points, and the Islanders have been able to do that. They will be in playoff position at Thanksgiving, which, as has been well documented, portends good things. Lambert still has to find a way to get his team ready to play from the drop of the puck, but it’s still encouraging the way they’ve been able to take over games when they truly set their minds to it. Having the kind of resiliency they’ve shown at times should continue to pay dividends over the coming months, and, along with their goaltending, it’s why I’m comfortable predicting that this is a playoff team.

Is it just me or at this point does it seem that Sebastian Aho is generating more offense than Ryan Pulock? — Doc A.

Ryan Pulock seems to be a bit MIA so far this year. Is something off or is he just quietly doing OK, with some of the other defensemen getting more of the defensive and offensive opportunities. — Andy D. 

My first inclination when I saw these questions about Pulock was to immediately check his power-play time. Obviously, a player will be more noticeable when he’s out there with a man advantage, and Pulock is averaging just 49 seconds on the power play this season. Compare that with 2020-21, when he was averaging 1:55 on the power play.

Perhaps a case can be made that he could do more than the seven points (1 goal, 6 assists) he put up through 20 games. But Pulock is still getting the toughest assignments on a nightly basis, and he’s been a minus player in just five games. The Adam Pelech-Pulock pair has been on the ice for 15 goals-for at five-on-five, and 10 against — and that’s despite starting in the offensive zone just 37.8 percent of the time (they’ve taken 31 offensive-zone draws together, and 61 in the defensive zone).

Regarding the first question, yes, Aho has done some good things, which I touched on here recently. But Pulock still has more shots on goal than Aho (29 to 23), and he’s also been credited with more individual scoring chances at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick (18 to 12).

I suppose if you really want to dig into some of the underlying stats, Pulock’s 47.2 expected-goals rate could be better. But I just don’t see any reason to be overly concerned about his play at this point.

For what it’s worth, I asked Pulock about two weeks ago if he pays much attention to stats, standard or otherwise.

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“Not that closely,” he said. “Once in a while I come across it and it tells part of the story but maybe doesn’t always tell the whole story. Sometimes your numbers are good and there’s little things you can be better at. And sometimes your numbers aren’t so good, but you’re doing a lot of good things in other areas that maybe don’t show up.”

He continued: “Most nights at the end of the night you know whether you played well or not. I think sometimes you can be on the scoreboard and still know that maybe it wasn’t one of your best. Then there’s nights where your name doesn’t show up and you did a lot of really good things and helped the team win.”

Ryan Pulock. (Jeff Curry / USA Today)

Why does Beauvillier have such a long leash? It’s blind faith at this point. — William S.

Well, keep in mind that Beauvillier was scratched for a game on Oct. 23 at Florida. There have been games where his ice time has been reduced, too, like when he played less than 13 minutes in the comeback win against the Avalanche on Oct. 29 and the loss in Dallas on Saturday.

Regardless, there just aren’t any other options. Nikita Soshnikov had an opportunity to push a guy like Beauvillier out of the lineup and wasn’t able to do it. Ross Johnston isn’t suited for top-nine duty. There’s probably no one in the system that is ready to come up, either. It’s for all of these reasons that the expectation was for the Islanders to try and upgrade at forward in the offseason, and it’s why a guy like Beauvillier is still as logical a choice as any to get moved if the team needs to create some salary cap space for a bigger name.

My primary issue with Beauvillier’s game is he doesn’t seem to be able to get to the front of the net or put himself in good positions to score. According to Natural Stat Trick, he has just seven individual high-danger scoring chances, which is three fewer than fourth-liners Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck. You’re not going to score goals in this league unless you go to the net.

(Top photo of the Sharks’ Timo Meier and Islanders’ Zach Parise: Dennis Schneidler / USA Today)

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